DreamLeague Season 30. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionOBold bloodloss 0:2
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:2
WSWhite Sailswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
old blood
Dark Seeroften banned
ягуд · 3 games
Tusk
Thedarkestwne · 2 games
Dazzle
Юрец · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Resonance · 1 game
Necrophosoften banned
Eternal · 1 game
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Resonance · 1 game
Pangolier
Resonance · 1 game
Ringmaster
Юрец · 1 game
White Sails
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
507 picks · 315 bans
Dark Willow
431 picks · 226 bans
Mirana
392 picks · 176 bans
Winter Wyvern
341 picks · 311 bans
Ember Spirit
322 picks · 491 bans
Centaur Warrunner
296 picks · 284 bans
Windranger
280 picks · 130 bans
Earth Spirit
275 picks · 502 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% White Sails
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% old blood
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:39
old blood 55%White Sails 45%
The model gave 55% on old blood — the game was taken by White Sails in 34:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterEternal
Ember SpiritMaTson
Timbersawягуд
Winter WyvernAtoufix
PangolierResonance
WindrangerThedarkestwne
TuskЮрец
Game 2prediction missed17:33
old blood 62%White Sails 38%
The model gave 62% on old blood — the game was taken by White Sails in 29:08.
Model check result
Model favoriteold blood · 62%
Series resultWhite Sails 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2