Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Old Gloss 0:2series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Monaspawin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Old G
Enchantresssignature
RodjER · 7 games
Tusk
Topson · 6 games
Ursasignature
Shigetsu · 6 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Malik · 5 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
No[o]ne · 5 games
Clockwerk
RodjER · 4 games
Doomoften banned
Malik · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
young G · 4 games
Monaspa
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
372 picks · 353 bans
Tusk
337 picks · 318 bans
Marci
264 picks · 501 bans
Pangolier
250 picks · 575 bans
Undying
246 picks · 459 bans
Primal Beast
234 picks · 601 bans
Snapfire
221 picks · 127 bans
Shadow Fiend
217 picks · 353 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 62%
Hero pool strength56% Old G
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total56% Old G
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:37
Old G 56%Monaspa 44%
The model gave 56% on Old G — the game was taken by Monaspa in 34:40.
Game 2prediction missed27:50
Old G 56%Monaspa 44%
The model gave 56% on Old G — the game was taken by Monaspa in 45:16.
Model check result
Model favoriteOld G · 56%
Series resultMonaspa 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2