?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Old Gwin 2:0
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Blinkloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Old G

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
RodjER · 7 games
86%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
RodjER · 4 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Malik · 4 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
Malik · 4 games
50%
Bane
Bane
Dukalis · 3 games
100%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Shigetsu · 3 games
33%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
krylat · 3 games
67%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Malik · 3 games
100%

Team Blink

Silencer
Silenceroften banned
smN · 2 games
100%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
smN · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
359 picks · 333 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
309 picks · 291 bans
59%
Marci
Marci
274 picks · 518 bans
55%
Undying
Undying
252 picks · 465 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
245 picks · 551 bans
53%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
232 picks · 592 bans
53%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
222 picks · 340 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
213 picks · 113 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% Team Blink
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Old G
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct51:36
Old G 63%Team Blink 37%
The model gave 63% on Old G — the game was taken by Old G in 47:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerNo[o]ne
64% · 7 games42% · 55 games
SilencersmN
Silencer
Magnus
MagnusCeb
63% · 4 games
Tusk
TuskTopson
63% · 26 games
Rubick
RubickMSS
50% · 18 games
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionn0tail
little data
Game 2prediction correct57:56
Old G 61%Team Blink 39%
The model gave 61% on Old G — the game was taken by Old G in 56:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerNo[o]ne
64% · 7 games52% · 22 games
SilencersmN
Silencer
Pugna
PugnaTopson
71% · 3 games
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerCeb
43% · 3 games
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorMSS
31% · 9 games
Techies
Techiesn0tail
little data
Model check result
Model favoriteOld G · 76%
Series resultOld G 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2