Moon Studio Spring Trophy · BO3
result vs prediction
Omega Esportswin 2:1series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Crocodileloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Omega Esports
Void Spiritoften banned
Mac · 8 games
Batrideroften banned
Mac · 6 games
Grimstroke
Boomy · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
Bok · 5 games
Alchemistoften banned
Tino- · 4 games
Brewmaster
cml · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mac · 4 games
Lion
cml · 4 games
Crocodile
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
382 picks · 851 bans
Void Spirit
359 picks · 511 bans
Mars
310 picks · 557 bans
Death Prophet
277 picks · 489 bans
Earth Spirit
275 picks · 237 bans
Rubick
253 picks · 155 bans
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 516 bans
Wraith King
236 picks · 374 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 58%
Hero pool strength53% Omega Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Omega Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:34
Omega Esports 57%Crocodile 43%
The model gave 57% on Omega Esports — the game was taken by Crocodile in 38:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
IoTino-
PuckSakata
Death ProphetMac
Elder TitanQYQX
PangolierSam_H
Tuskcml
Game 2prediction correct40:23
Omega Esports 55%Crocodile 45%
The model gave 55% on Omega Esports — the game was taken by Omega Esports in 39:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingTino-
PuckSakata
Void SpiritMac
Elder TitanQYQX
Dragon KnightSam_H
Grimstrokecml
Game 3prediction correct34:43
Omega Esports 52%Crocodile 48%
The model gave 52% on Omega Esports — the game was taken by Omega Esports in 47:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-MageTino-
Storm SpiritSakata
Monkey KingMac
PuckQYQX
Dragon KnightSam_H
Oraclecml
Model check result
Model favoriteOmega Esports · 55%
Series resultOmega Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3