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Moon Studio Spring Trophy · BO3
result vs prediction
Omega Esportswin 2:0
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Dragonloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Omega Esports

Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Mac · 12 games
58%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Mac · 8 games
63%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
cml · 8 games
88%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Tino- · 8 games
75%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Mac · 7 games
43%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Bok · 6 games
67%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Tino- · 5 games
40%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Sam_H · 5 games
80%

Dragon

Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
斗圣 · 2 games
0%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
ghost · 2 games
0%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
ghost · 2 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
斗圣 · 2 games
0%
Axe
Axeoften banned
ghost · 1 game
0%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
斗圣 · 1 game
0%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
ghost · 1 game
100%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
斗圣 · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
402 picks · 946 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
375 picks · 572 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
331 picks · 610 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
294 picks · 583 bans
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
294 picks · 263 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
255 picks · 172 bans
50%
Wraith King
Wraith King
241 picks · 407 bans
56%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
239 picks · 541 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 52%
Hero pool strength63% Omega Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Omega Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:18
Omega Esports 59%Dragon 41%
The model gave 59% on Omega Esports — the game was taken by Omega Esports in 39:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Arc Warden
Arc WardenTino-
38% · 4 games58% · 89 games
Marsghost
Mars
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSam_H
47% · 13 games
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMac
52% · 48 games
Grimstroke
Grimstrokecml
29% · 24 games
Game 2prediction correct37:25
Omega Esports 56%Dragon 44%
The model gave 56% on Omega Esports — the game was taken by Omega Esports in 41:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaTino-
57% · 3 games48% · 30 games
Tidehunterghost
Tidehunter
Tiny
TinyMac
50% · 4 games
Alchemist
AlchemistSam_H
50% · 8 games
Tusk
Tuskcml
53% · 15 games
Model check result
Model favoriteOmega Esports · 65%
Series resultOmega Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2