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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — ЮВА 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Omega Esportswin 2:1
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nigma Galaxy SEAloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Omega Esports

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Mac · 6 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
cml · 4 games
75%
Lion
Lion
cml · 4 games
75%
Tiny
Tiny
Boomy · 4 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Mac · 4 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmaster
Bok · 3 games
0%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Mac · 3 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mac · 3 games
67%

Nigma Galaxy SEA

Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
343 · 6 games
33%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Ghost · 6 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
AlaCrity · 5 games
80%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Ghost · 5 games
60%
Enchantress
Enchantress
343 · 3 games
33%
Rubick
Rubick
343 · 3 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
AlaCrity · 3 games
33%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
AlaCrity · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
171 picks · 392 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
166 picks · 305 bans
47%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
157 picks · 125 bans
49%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
148 picks · 213 bans
59%
Phoenix
Phoenix
130 picks · 149 bans
58%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
113 picks · 207 bans
54%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
113 picks · 388 bans
61%
Rubick
Rubick
112 picks · 61 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 47%
Hero pool strength50% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Omega Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct49:37
Omega Esports 60%Nigma Galaxy SEA 40%
The model gave 60% on Omega Esports — the game was taken by Omega Esports in 1:04:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinTino-
little datalittle data
Arc WardenAlaCrity
Arc Warden
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterMac
little data64% · 7 games
Ember SpiritForce
Ember Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierBok
64% · 7 games40% · 17 games
Undying343
Undying
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magicml
43% · 3 games
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightBoomy
50% · 14 games
Game 2prediction missed9:37
Omega Esports 61%Nigma Galaxy SEA 39%
The model gave 61% on Omega Esports — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 34:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistTino-
little data46% · 15 games
MorphlingAlaCrity
Morphling
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightBoomy
54% · 29 games52% · 32 games
Void SpiritForce
Void Spirit
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterMac
little datalittle data
Ogre Magi343
Ogre Magi
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerBok
45% · 12 games
Brewmaster
Brewmastercml
40% · 6 games
Game 3prediction correct35:17
Omega Esports 63%Nigma Galaxy SEA 37%
The model gave 63% on Omega Esports — the game was taken by Omega Esports in 37:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaMac
47% · 7 games56% · 5 games
SlarkAlaCrity
Slark
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritTino-
little data48% · 18 games
Death ProphetForce
Death Prophet
Void Spirit
Void SpiritBoomy
40% · 6 games50% · 6 games
Ogre Magi343
Ogre Magi
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonBok
71% · 3 games
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassincml
52% · 13 games
Model check result
Model favoriteOmega Esports · 69%
Series resultOmega Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3