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OB.Moon Asian Arena · BO2
result vs prediction
Omega Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
15%85%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team SMGwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Omega Esports

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Sam_H · 10 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Sam_H · 9 games
78%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Tino- · 9 games
56%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
cml · 8 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
cml · 7 games
29%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mac · 7 games
43%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Mac · 6 games
50%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Sam_H · 5 games
60%

Team SMG

Lion
Lion
Roddgeee · 18 games
56%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Roddgeee · 15 games
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
AhFu · 15 games
53%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
kpii · 14 games
79%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
AhFu · 13 games
69%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
Moon · 13 games
92%
Mars
Marsoften banned
kpii · 12 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Roddgeee · 10 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
372 picks · 176 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
340 picks · 122 bans
48%
Lina
Lina
271 picks · 484 bans
53%
Luna
Luna
252 picks · 342 bans
51%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
250 picks · 528 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
249 picks · 417 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
242 picks · 313 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
233 picks · 487 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)14% vs 55%
Hero pool strength57% Team SMG
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total85% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:32
Omega Esports 15%Team SMG 85%
The model gave 85% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 23:48.
Game 2prediction correct19:48
Omega Esports 15%Team SMG 85%
The model gave 85% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 24:55.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 85%
Series resultTeam SMG 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2