Moon Studio Spring Trophy · BO3
result vs prediction
Omega Esportswin 2:0series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Omega Esports
Void Spiritsignature
Mac · 13 games
Grimstrokesignature
cml · 9 games
Batridersignature
Mac · 8 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Mac · 8 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Mac · 7 games
Alchemistoften banned
Tino- · 6 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Sam_H · 6 games
Pangoliersignature
Bok · 6 games
Xtreme Gaming
Death Prophetoften banned
Storm · 3 games
Linaoften banned
Storm · 3 games
Puckoften banned
bLink · 3 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Storm · 3 games
Windranger
Storm · 3 games
Ursaoften banned
Storm · 2 games
Viperoften banned
Storm · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Storm · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
402 picks · 947 bans
Void Spirit
376 picks · 574 bans
Mars
333 picks · 611 bans
Earth Spirit
297 picks · 264 bans
Death Prophet
295 picks · 585 bans
Rubick
255 picks · 172 bans
Wraith King
241 picks · 407 bans
Phoenix
240 picks · 328 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 43%
Hero pool strength58% Omega Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Omega Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteOmega Esports · 73%
Series resultOmega Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect