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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Omega Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Interitusloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Omega Gaming

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
CHAAANNN · 8 games
63%
Mars
Marssignature
Lissex · 6 games
67%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Demon · 6 games
33%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Demon · 5 games
60%
Dazzle
Dazzle
CHAAANNN · 4 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Demon · 4 games
100%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Mingatte · 4 games
25%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Mingatte · 4 games
50%

Interitus

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
H1j4ck · 7 games
57%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Rayuur · 7 games
43%
Bane
Bane
DFlash · 4 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
DFlash · 4 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Amin · 4 games
50%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
H1j4ck · 4 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Amin · 3 games
0%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
FCR · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
475 picks · 278 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
395 picks · 543 bans
55%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
367 picks · 511 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
360 picks · 479 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
312 picks · 492 bans
54%
Kunkka
Kunkka
290 picks · 520 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
272 picks · 351 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
270 picks · 190 bans
44%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 27%
Hero pool strength52% Omega Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total63% Omega Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:26
Omega Gaming 60%Interitus 40%
The model gave 60% on Omega Gaming — the game was taken by Omega Gaming in 47:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritJeimari
48% · 237 games57% · 60 games
Anti-MageFCR
Anti-Mage
Medusa
MedusaMingatte
47% · 171 game51% · 259 games
Invokermurd0c
Invoker
Mars
MarsLissex
49% · 383 games47% · 281 game
PangolierH1j4ck
Pangolier
Mirana
MiranaDemon
51% · 174 games51% · 294 games
BaneDFlash
Bane
52% · 71 game
Shadow ShamanAmin
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction correct35:24
Omega Gaming 57%Interitus 43%
The model gave 57% on Omega Gaming — the game was taken by Omega Gaming in 37:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinMingatte
53% · 175 games47% · 54 games
Chaos KnightFCR
Chaos Knight
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritJeimari
48% · 169 games51% · 235 games
Kunkkamurd0c
Kunkka
Mars
MarsLissex
46% · 371 game48% · 271 game
PangolierH1j4ck
Pangolier
Hoodwink
HoodwinkDemon
46% · 156 games61% · 219 games
MiranaAmin
Mirana
49% · 92 games
UndyingDFlash
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteOmega Gaming · 63%
Series resultOmega Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2