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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Южная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Omega Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Inversewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Omega Gaming

Tusk
Tusk
Zxca · 5 games
60%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knight
Mingatte · 4 games
25%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Jeimari · 4 games
75%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Zxca · 3 games
67%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Mingatte · 3 games
100%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Jeimari · 2 games
50%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Mingatte · 2 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Jeimari · 2 games
100%

Inverse

Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Slaw · 7 games
29%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Slaw · 4 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
ArzenT · 3 games
67%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Slaw · 2 games
100%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
ArzenT · 2 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
DM · 2 games
0%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
Parker · 2 games
0%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Migi · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
409 picks · 956 bans
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
373 picks · 530 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
346 picks · 707 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
333 picks · 550 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
323 picks · 326 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
296 picks · 219 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
292 picks · 162 bans
47%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
271 picks · 277 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 45%
Hero pool strength57% Omega Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Omega Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:46
Omega Gaming 63%Inverse 37%
The model gave 63% on Omega Gaming — the game was taken by Inverse in 40:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingMingatte
48% · 37 games49% · 25 games
GyrocopterParker
Gyrocopter
Invoker
InvokerJeimari
52% · 17 games52% · 24 games
KunkkaMigi
Kunkka
Snapfire
SnapfireZxca
57% · 21 game38% · 14 games
Sand KingArzenT
Sand King
55% · 12 games
Ogre MagiSlaw
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction correct40:21
Omega Gaming 62%Inverse 38%
The model gave 62% on Omega Gaming — the game was taken by Omega Gaming in 31:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerMingatte
58% · 14 games55% · 20 games
UrsaParker
Ursa
Lina
LinaJeimari
60% · 12 games43% · 19 games
TinyMigi
Tiny
Tusk
TuskZxca
50% · 31 gamelittle data
Ogre MagiArzenT
Ogre Magi
40% · 18 games
ViperSlaw
Viper
Game 3prediction missed19:41
Omega Gaming 61%Inverse 39%
The model gave 61% on Omega Gaming — the game was taken by Inverse in 33:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaMingatte
42% · 24 games49% · 29 games
MedusaParker
Medusa
Void Spirit
Void SpiritJeimari
52% · 168 games57% · 58 games
Ember SpiritMigi
Ember Spirit
Snapfire
SnapfireZxca
41% · 60 games55% · 78 games
Death ProphetArzenT
Death Prophet
54% · 87 games
GrimstrokeSlaw
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteOmega Gaming · 70%
Series resultInverse 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3