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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Omega Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Mad Kingswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Omega Gaming

Mars
Marssignature
Lissex · 11 games
64%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
CHAAANNN · 8 games
63%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Demon · 8 games
63%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Demon · 7 games
71%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Demon · 7 games
43%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Mingatte · 6 games
83%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Jeimari · 6 games
33%
Mirana
Mirana
Demon · 5 games
40%

Mad Kings

Mars
Marssignature
Frank · 12 games
75%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
Mjz · 10 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Frank · 8 games
75%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Leostyle · 6 games
33%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Mnz · 6 games
83%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Leostyle · 5 games
100%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Mnz · 5 games
60%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Leostyle · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
468 picks · 645 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
467 picks · 503 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
441 picks · 270 bans
56%
Sand King
Sand King
422 picks · 553 bans
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
355 picks · 601 bans
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
353 picks · 409 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
352 picks · 537 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
351 picks · 815 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 58%
Hero pool strength54% Mad Kings
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Omega Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:37
Omega Gaming 47%Mad Kings 53%
The model gave 53% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 26:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidMingatte
31% · 53 games67% · 92 games
Wraith KingAdrx
Wraith King
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritTano
39% · 96 games62% · 57 games
Death ProphetArzenT
Death Prophet
Game 2prediction missed17:39
Omega Gaming 50%Mad Kings 50%
The model gave 50% on Omega Gaming — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 28:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinMingatte
49% · 70 games48% · 40 games
Faceless VoidAdrx
Faceless Void
Tiny
TinyTano
47% · 54 games56% · 84 games
BeastmasterArzenT
Beastmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteOmega Gaming · 58%
Series resultMad Kings 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2