Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Movewin 2:1series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
11Monkeyzloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
One Move
Banesignature
Panto · 32 games
Miranasignature
sayuw · 26 games
Pangoliersignature
mellojul · 25 games
Sand Kingsignature
mellojul · 24 games
Storm Spiritsignature
mellojul · 23 games
Marssignature
AfterLife · 20 games
Medusasignature
Smiling Knight · 18 games
Clockwerksignature
sayuw · 16 games
11Monkeyz
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
476 picks · 659 bans
Tiny
462 picks · 487 bans
Bane
453 picks · 277 bans
Sand King
429 picks · 579 bans
Dragon Knight
382 picks · 452 bans
Storm Spirit
380 picks · 638 bans
Pangolier
362 picks · 562 bans
Ember Spirit
345 picks · 598 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 62%
Hero pool strength62% One Move
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:24
One Move 57%11Monkeyz 43%
The model gave 57% on One Move — the game was taken by 11Monkeyz in 22:06.
Game 2prediction correct54:28
One Move 57%11Monkeyz 43%
The model gave 57% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 1:08:52.
Game 3prediction correct46:31
One Move 57%11Monkeyz 43%
The model gave 57% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 49:02.
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 57%
Series resultOne Move 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3