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CCT Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Moveloss 1:2
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 1:2
1w Teamwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 22 games
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
WoE · 21 game
52%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
SSS · 21 game
52%
Marci
Marcisignature
not me · 19 games
68%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
SSS · 16 games
56%
Doom
Doomsignature
SSS · 16 games
75%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
WoE · 16 games
56%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
SSS · 16 games
63%

1w Team

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
RESPECT · 31 game
52%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Munkushi~ · 29 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 27 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 26 games
69%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
RESPECT · 26 games
62%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
swedenstrong · 25 games
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
RESPECT · 22 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 22 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
501 picks · 681 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
425 picks · 480 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
366 picks · 547 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
358 picks · 457 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
339 picks · 177 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
332 picks · 446 bans
51%
Enchantress
Enchantress
325 picks · 659 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
316 picks · 326 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 4
Model total72% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:25
One Move 41%1w Team 59%
The model gave 59% on 1w Team — the game was taken by One Move in 43:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaWoE
47% · 137 games40% · 236 games
MorphlingMunkushi~
Morphling
Pangolier
PangolierDifference
49% · 298 games53% · 196 games
Ember SpiritSquad1x
Ember Spirit
Night Stalker
Night StalkerSSS
59% · 39 games56% · 55 games
Anti-MageCloud
Anti-Mage
Marci
Marcinot me
49% · 85 games48% · 103 games
Muertaswedenstrong
Muerta
Elder Titan
Elder TitanRein
52% · 73 games53% · 42 games
Ogre MagiRESPECT
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction correct36:55
One Move 38%1w Team 62%
The model gave 62% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 53:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeWoE
64% · 53 games50% · 182 games
Templar AssassinMunkushi~
Templar Assassin
Pangolier
PangolierSSS
48% · 223 games45% · 119 games
Queen of PainSquad1x
Queen of Pain
Dazzle
DazzleDifference
47% · 24 games45% · 91 game
DawnbreakerCloud
Dawnbreaker
Batrider
Batridernot me
49% · 136 games44% · 141 game
Marciswedenstrong
Marci
Tusk
TuskRein
51% · 152 games58% · 55 games
LichRESPECT
Lich
Game 3prediction correct32:39
One Move 41%1w Team 59%
The model gave 59% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 47:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingWoE
58% · 135 games57% · 109 games
AlchemistMunkushi~
Alchemist
Night Stalker
Night StalkerSSS
50% · 34 games46% · 55 games
Queen of PainSquad1x
Queen of Pain
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritDifference
46% · 176 games46% · 138 games
MarsCloud
Mars
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiRein
48% · 24 games55% · 131 game
Weaverswedenstrong
Weaver
Marci
Marcinot me
42% · 81 game46% · 17 games
LichRESPECT
Lich
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 72%
Series result1w Team 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3