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European Pro League Season 26 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Moveloss 0:2
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
4Pirateswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 29 games
34%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
SSS · 26 games
58%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 26 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 25 games
40%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Difference · 25 games
32%
Muerta
Muerta
not me · 22 games
45%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
WoE · 20 games
50%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
SSS · 18 games
50%

4Pirates

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 23 games
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
ariel · 18 games
44%
Sniper
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 18 games
67%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
PERDAN4IK · 15 games
40%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
мистер мораль · 15 games
47%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
мистер мораль · 14 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Otaker · 14 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 12 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
470 picks · 467 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
405 picks · 569 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
334 picks · 151 bans
51%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
283 picks · 579 bans
53%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
280 picks · 524 bans
47%
Bristleback
Bristleback
268 picks · 492 bans
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
266 picks · 572 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
265 picks · 149 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 65%
Hero pool strength53% 4Pirates
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total60% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:31
One Move 43%4Pirates 57%
The model gave 57% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 32:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkEyesight
54% · 59 games58% · 117 games
DawnbreakerOtaker
Dawnbreaker
Primal Beast
Primal Beastzvёzd
43% · 262 games47% · 431 game
PangolierNattyNarwhal
Pangolier
Tiny
TinyDifference
46% · 464 games56% · 246 games
Sand Kingмистер мораль
Sand King
Jakiro
JakiroBb3px
47% · 375 games53% · 202 games
WarlockPERDAN4IK
Warlock
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamannot me
48% · 70 games51% · 234 games
Windrangerariel
Windranger
Game 2prediction correct11:30
One Move 45%4Pirates 55%
The model gave 55% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 32:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightEyesight
43% · 371 game49% · 337 games
TinyOtaker
Tiny
Leshrac
LeshracDifference
49% · 73 games51% · 221 game
PhoenixNattyNarwhal
Phoenix
Night Stalker
Night Stalkerzvёzd
45% · 112 games52% · 36 games
Venomancerariel
Venomancer
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionBb3px
59% · 80 games51% · 121 game
Primal Beastмистер мораль
Primal Beast
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunternot me
53% · 99 games54% · 20 games
BanePERDAN4IK
Bane
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 60%
Series result4Pirates 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2