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CCT Series 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Moveloss 1:2
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Apple City Gangwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 32 games
41%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 25 games
52%
Marci
Marcisignature
not me · 24 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
not me · 18 games
22%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkersignature
SSS · 18 games
61%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
SSS · 17 games
59%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
WoE · 17 games
71%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 17 games
47%

Apple City Gang

Io
Iooften banned
flacko · 2 games
100%
Leshrac
Leshrac
dualrazee · 2 games
100%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
dualrazee · 2 games
50%
Muerta
Muerta
Astral · 2 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Norma · 2 games
100%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Astral · 1 game
100%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Norma · 1 game
0%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Norma · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
503 picks · 685 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
496 picks · 797 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
477 picks · 479 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
449 picks · 546 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
430 picks · 368 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
421 picks · 1003 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
395 picks · 914 bans
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
394 picks · 762 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 62%
Hero pool strength55% Apple City Gang
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:11
One Move 55%Apple City Gang 45%
The model gave 55% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 31:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonWoE
37% · 50 games55% · 388 games
Tinyyowaai
Tiny
Dark Seer
Dark SeerChodΣX
59% · 99 games59% · 46 games
Huskardualrazee
Huskar
Mirana
MiranaRein
51% · 98 games45% · 169 games
MagnusNorma
Magnus
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritDifference
45% · 200 games53% · 259 games
TuskAstral
Tusk
Clockwerk
Clockwerknot me
48% · 420 games33% · 5 games
Silencerflacko
Silencer
Game 2prediction missed21:42
One Move 57%Apple City Gang 43%
The model gave 57% on One Move — the game was taken by Apple City Gang in 38:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark Seer
Dark SeerChodΣX
56% · 182 games46% · 162 games
Tinyyowaai
Tiny
Clinkz
ClinkzWoE
49% · 37 games45% · 46 games
Leshracdualrazee
Leshrac
Slardar
SlardarDifference
52% · 120 games39% · 34 games
Night StalkerNorma
Night Stalker
Riki
Rikinot me
50% · 69 games54% · 172 games
ClockwerkAstral
Clockwerk
Warlock
WarlockRein
56% · 88 games45% · 82 games
Elder Titanflacko
Elder Titan
Game 3prediction missed10:30
One Move 55%Apple City Gang 45%
The model gave 55% on One Move — the game was taken by Apple City Gang in 34:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidWoE
53% · 65 games53% · 121 game
Lifestealeryowaai
Lifestealer
Primal Beast
Primal BeastChodΣX
50% · 175 games55% · 126 games
Monkey Kingdualrazee
Monkey King
Leshrac
LeshracDifference
52% · 136 games50% · 161 game
Centaur WarrunnerNorma
Centaur Warrunner
Jakiro
JakiroRein
42% · 73 games53% · 121 game
Miranaflacko
Mirana
Muerta
Muertanot me
41% · 119 games51% · 39 games
BaneAstral
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 64%
Series resultApple City Gang 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3