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European Pro League Season 26 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Movewin 2:0
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Apple City Gangloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 28 games
32%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
SSS · 26 games
58%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Difference · 26 games
31%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 25 games
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 24 games
42%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
WoE · 20 games
45%
Muerta
Muerta
not me · 19 games
42%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
SSS · 18 games
44%

Apple City Gang

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
dualrazee · 19 games
68%
Tusk
Tusk
QBFY · 14 games
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
flacko · 13 games
54%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
yowaai · 11 games
73%
Marci
Marcioften banned
flacko · 9 games
44%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
yowaai · 9 games
44%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
flacko · 8 games
75%
Jakiro
Jakiro
flacko · 8 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
486 picks · 475 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
411 picks · 559 bans
52%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
347 picks · 159 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
287 picks · 535 bans
48%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
267 picks · 579 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
267 picks · 560 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
263 picks · 373 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
262 picks · 502 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 56%
Hero pool strength57% Apple City Gang
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total53% Apple City Gang
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:7
One Move 49%Apple City Gang 51%
The model gave 51% on Apple City Gang — the game was taken by One Move in 33:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusazvёzd
48% · 159 games53% · 129 games
Sniperdualrazee
Sniper
Ursa
UrsaEyesight
42% · 69 games51% · 95 games
Lunayowaai
Luna
Monkey King
Monkey KingDifference
54% · 208 games58% · 244 games
BristlebackNorma
Bristleback
Jakiro
JakiroBb3px
46% · 266 games48% · 232 games
RingmasterFernans
Ringmaster
Windranger
Windrangernot me
48% · 172 games50% · 174 games
Elder Titanflacko
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction missed32:16
One Move 47%Apple City Gang 53%
The model gave 53% on Apple City Gang — the game was taken by One Move in 37:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenEyesight
47% · 104 games47% · 111 games
Sniperdualrazee
Sniper
Beastmaster
Beastmasterzvёzd
48% · 390 games61% · 44 games
Clinkzyowaai
Clinkz
Monkey King
Monkey KingDifference
51% · 265 games57% · 268 games
BristlebackNorma
Bristleback
Ringmaster
Ringmasternot me
51% · 112 games52% · 271 game
Phoenixflacko
Phoenix
Silencer
SilencerBb3px
53% · 87 games41% · 264 games
TuskFernans
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteApple City Gang · 53%
Series resultOne Move 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2