FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
One Movewin 3:2series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 3:2
ASAKURAloss 2:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
One Move
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 28 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 21 game
Marcisignature
not me · 20 games
Enchantressoften banned
Rein · 17 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 17 games
Doomsignature
SSS · 16 games
Batrideroften banned
not me · 15 games
Dragon Knightsignature
WoE · 15 games
ASAKURA
Lion
slimeyao · 11 games
Magnussignature
Infernal · 9 games
Shadow Demonsignature
slimeyao · 9 games
Gyrocoptersignature
7jesu · 8 games
Lichsignature
VaniLLl · 8 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Infernal · 8 games
Elder Titansignature
VaniLLl · 7 games
Invokeroften banned
young G · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
497 picks · 654 bans
Muerta
473 picks · 405 bans
Batrider
465 picks · 589 bans
Clockwerk
459 picks · 565 bans
Tiny
444 picks · 515 bans
Gyrocopter
426 picks · 794 bans
Magnus
415 picks · 936 bans
Lion
397 picks · 233 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 65%
Hero pool strength56% ASAKURA
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total65% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:25
One Move 57%ASAKURA 43%
The model gave 57% on One Move — the game was taken by ASAKURA in 40:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BloodseekerWoE
Dragon Knight7jesu
PangolierDifference
Storm Spirityoung G
DawnbreakerSSS
BrewmasterVladikTheHtiviy
ZeusRein
PhoenixVaniLLl
Clockwerknot me
Shadow Demonslimeyao
Game 2prediction correct31:13
One Move 60%ASAKURA 40%
The model gave 60% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 41:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerWoE
Dragon Knight7jesu
LinaDifference
BristlebackVladikTheHtiviy
Night StalkerSSS
Primal Beastyoung G
VenomancerRein
Muertaslimeyao
Rikinot me
LichVaniLLl
Game 3prediction missed13:39
One Move 57%ASAKURA 43%
The model gave 57% on One Move — the game was taken by ASAKURA in 45:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SniperDifference
Faceless Void7jesu
LifestealerWoE
Linayoung G
Sand KingSSS
Night StalkerVladikTheHtiviy
VenomancerRein
Shadow Demonslimeyao
Bounty Hunternot me
Elder TitanVaniLLl
Game 4prediction correct28:14
One Move 57%ASAKURA 43%
The model gave 57% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 37:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AbaddonWoE
Bloodseeker7jesu
LinaDifference
DawnbreakerVladikTheHtiviy
BristlebackSSS
Invokeryoung G
PhoenixRein
LichVaniLLl
Marcinot me
Nyx Assassinslimeyao
Game 5prediction correct25:13
One Move 58%ASAKURA 42%
The model gave 58% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 32:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
ClinkzWoE
Linayoung G
BristlebackSSS
Dragon Knight7jesu
TinyDifference
Night StalkerVladikTheHtiviy
Elder TitanRein
ZeusVaniLLl
Batridernot me
Shadow Shamanslimeyao
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 65%
Series resultOne Move 3:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 5