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The International 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
One Moveloss 0:2
series probability
13%87%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
SSS · 26 games
58%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Difference · 24 games
29%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 21 game
43%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 20 games
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
WoE · 19 games
37%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 19 games
21%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Bb3px · 17 games
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
not me · 16 games
56%

Aurora Gaming

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nightfall · 37 games
54%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Panto · 24 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Mira · 24 games
58%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Mira · 23 games
78%
Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 22 games
73%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Nightfall · 22 games
59%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Mira · 21 game
52%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Panto · 19 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
490 picks · 446 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
488 picks · 571 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
452 picks · 232 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
355 picks · 718 bans
47%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
320 picks · 730 bans
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
317 picks · 497 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
304 picks · 265 bans
48%
Windranger
Windranger
298 picks · 93 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 50%
Hero pool strength59% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:22
One Move 24%Aurora Gaming 76%
The model gave 76% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 47:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeEyesight
39% · 146 games59% · 130 games
UrsaNightfall
Ursa
Necrophos
NecrophosDifference
little data42% · 23 games
Death Prophetkiyotaka
Death Prophet
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetBb3px
45% · 146 games59% · 141 game
Dark SeerTORONTOTOKYO
Dark Seer
Tidehunter
TidehunterCorrupted
46% · 131 game61% · 68 games
Naga SirenPanto
Naga Siren
Dark Willow
Dark WillowGilgir
41% · 185 games56% · 246 games
TuskMira
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct15:31
One Move 29%Aurora Gaming 71%
The model gave 71% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 35:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingEyesight
44% · 98 games61% · 44 games
LycanTORONTOTOKYO
Lycan
Leshrac
LeshracDifference
38% · 40 games56% · 43 games
OmniknightNightfall
Omniknight
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCorrupted
50% · 77 games54% · 26 games
Death Prophetkiyotaka
Death Prophet
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanGilgir
49% · 39 games44% · 26 games
DisruptorPanto
Disruptor
Oracle
OracleBb3px
54% · 36 games51% · 151 game
Dark WillowMira
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 87%
Series resultAurora Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2