DreamLeague Season 22. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
One Movewin 1:0series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 1:0
BBetaloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
One Move
Disruptor
Xakoda · 10 games
Legion Commandersignature
AfterLife · 9 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ainkrad · 8 games
Rubick
Panto · 8 games
Batrideroften banned
Gilgir · 7 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
AfterLife · 7 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Munkushi~ · 7 games
Phoenixoften banned
Panto · 6 games
Beta
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
258 picks · 436 bans
Phoenix
238 picks · 365 bans
Muerta
225 picks · 317 bans
Centaur Warrunner
221 picks · 290 bans
Dark Willow
212 picks · 99 bans
Tusk
210 picks · 196 bans
Treant Protector
189 picks · 359 bans
Kunkka
186 picks · 517 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Beta
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
One Move 71%Beta 29%
The model gave 71% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move.
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 71%
Series resultOne Move 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1