Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Movewin 2:0series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:0
CIS Rejectsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
One Move
Banesignature
Panto · 32 games
Miranasignature
sayuw · 27 games
Pangoliersignature
mellojul · 25 games
Sand Kingsignature
mellojul · 25 games
Storm Spiritsignature
mellojul · 24 games
Marssignature
AfterLife · 20 games
Medusasignature
Smiling Knight · 18 games
Clockwerksignature
sayuw · 16 games
CIS Rejects
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
472 picks · 654 bans
Tiny
458 picks · 479 bans
Bane
452 picks · 280 bans
Sand King
425 picks · 579 bans
Dragon Knight
385 picks · 456 bans
Storm Spirit
384 picks · 634 bans
Pangolier
360 picks · 564 bans
Ember Spirit
344 picks · 597 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 45%
Hero pool strength62% One Move
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% CIS Rejects
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:25
One Move 39%CIS Rejects 61%
The model gave 61% on CIS Rejects — the game was taken by One Move in 51:37.
Game 2prediction missed28:15
One Move 39%CIS Rejects 61%
The model gave 61% on CIS Rejects — the game was taken by One Move in 34:26.
Model check result
Model favoriteCIS Rejects · 61%
Series resultOne Move 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2