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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
One Movewin 2:1
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Hydraloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Tiny
Tiny
Gilgir · 21 game
43%
Mirana
Mirana
Gilgir · 17 games
59%
Rubick
Rubick
Gilgir · 17 games
47%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 15 games
53%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
AfterLife · 13 games
62%
Tusk
Tusk
Ainkrad · 12 games
42%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Panto · 11 games
45%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Gilgir · 11 games
45%

Hydra

Tusk
Tusksignature
Lefitan · 27 games
78%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 23 games
65%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Worick · 19 games
74%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
HappyDyurara · 19 games
68%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Lefitan · 13 games
77%
Lycan
Lycansignature
Cloud · 12 games
75%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Kami · 12 games
58%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Lefitan · 12 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
773 picks · 601 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
547 picks · 449 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
437 picks · 382 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
416 picks · 977 bans
58%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
401 picks · 684 bans
54%
Undying
Undying
399 picks · 593 bans
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
391 picks · 916 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
388 picks · 209 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 50%
Hero pool strength60% Hydra
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total51% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:31
One Move 48%Hydra 52%
The model gave 52% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 36:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeMunkushi~
56% · 153 games49% · 137 games
AlchemistKami
Alchemist
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritAinkrad
44% · 265 games50% · 144 games
TimbersawCloud
Timbersaw
Beastmaster
BeastmasterAfterLife
56% · 243 games48% · 243 games
Monkey KingWorick
Monkey King
Lich
LichPanto
46% · 74 games55% · 94 games
TechiesLil
Techies
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageGilgir
52% · 131 game43% · 248 games
Crystal MaidenHappyDyurara
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct28:10
One Move 51%Hydra 49%
The model gave 51% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 39:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeMunkushi~
56% · 125 games43% · 61 game
Phantom LancerKami
Phantom Lancer
Primal Beast
Primal BeastAinkrad
47% · 76 games44% · 91 game
UnderlordCloud
Underlord
Beastmaster
BeastmasterAfterLife
54% · 209 games45% · 91 game
Void SpiritWorick
Void Spirit
Rubick
RubickGilgir
55% · 229 games46% · 74 games
PugnaLil
Pugna
Oracle
OraclePanto
62% · 19 games50% · 341 game
EnchantressHappyDyurara
Enchantress
Game 3prediction missed29:14
One Move 49%Hydra 51%
The model gave 51% on Hydra — the game was taken by One Move in 40:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaMunkushi~
55% · 67 games53% · 289 games
DoomCloud
Doom
Puck
PuckAinkrad
48% · 210 games41% · 95 games
Shadow FiendKami
Shadow Fiend
Alchemist
AlchemistAfterLife
55% · 94 games44% · 193 games
BatriderWorick
Batrider
Mirana
MiranaGilgir
55% · 364 games47% · 159 games
SilencerLil
Silencer
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenPanto
50% · 286 games52% · 285 games
DisruptorHappyDyurara
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 51%
Series resultOne Move 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3