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Riyadh Masters 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
One Moveloss 0:1
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Hydrawin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
queezy · 10 games
30%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SSS · 8 games
38%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Rein · 8 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SSS · 8 games
25%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Wein · 7 games
14%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
xn丶e · 6 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
nesfeer · 6 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Panto · 6 games
17%

Hydra

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
hina · 3 games
33%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
DkFogas · 2 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
JANTER · 2 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
xsvampire · 2 games
0%
Abaddon
Abaddon
kur0patbI4 · 1 game
0%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Retsu · 1 game
0%
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageoften banned
krylat · 1 game
0%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
JANTER · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
465 picks · 221 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
408 picks · 638 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
399 picks · 366 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
394 picks · 697 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
393 picks · 562 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
366 picks · 158 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
355 picks · 756 bans
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
330 picks · 928 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 29%
Hero pool strength52% Hydra
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total57% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:36
One Move 52%Hydra 48%
The model gave 52% on One Move — the game was taken by Hydra in 50:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverSSS
53% · 39 games54% · 159 games
Centaur WarrunnerDominic
Centaur Warrunner
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendAinkrad
little data
Pudge
Pudgenesfeer
38% · 17 games
Clockwerk
Clockwerknot me
50% · 32 games
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenRein
43% · 71 game
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 57%
Series resultHydra 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1