Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 13 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Movewin 2:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
IVYloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
One Move
Miranasignature
sayuw · 31 game
Banesignature
Panto · 30 games
Sand Kingsignature
mellojul · 29 games
Storm Spiritsignature
mellojul · 28 games
Pangolieroften banned
mellojul · 27 games
Marssignature
AfterLife · 19 games
Medusasignature
Smiling Knight · 17 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 15 games
IVY
Tinysignature
Mo13ei · 22 games
Snapfiresignature
Qupe · 14 games
Mirana
Qupe · 12 games
Clockwerk
Qupe · 11 games
Enchantresssignature
jmn- · 10 games
Timbersawsignature
Mo13ei · 10 games
Chenoften banned
jmn- · 9 games
Marsoften banned
Max · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
641 picks · 475 bans
Puck
444 picks · 961 bans
Dawnbreaker
368 picks · 433 bans
Snapfire
365 picks · 189 bans
Mars
349 picks · 584 bans
Dragon Knight
332 picks · 445 bans
Marci
316 picks · 635 bans
Bane
308 picks · 188 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 65%
Hero pool strength57% One Move
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:17
One Move 52%IVY 48%
The model gave 52% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 35:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BristlebackSmiling Knight
JuggernautLowskill
Puckmellojul
TinyMo13ei
Dark SeerAfterLife
DawnbreakerMax
DazzlePanto
SnapfireQupe
Game 2prediction correct33:11
One Move 53%IVY 47%
The model gave 53% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 30:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeSmiling Knight
Naga SirenLowskill
Keeper of the Lightmellojul
TinyMo13ei
ViperAfterLife
RazorMax
ClockwerkPanto
AlchemistQupe
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 53%
Series resultOne Move 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2