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Фиджитал игры · BO3
result vs prediction
One Movewin 2:0
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Keyd Starsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Tiny
Tiny
Gilgir · 22 games
55%
Mirana
Mirana
Panto · 17 games
53%
Rubick
Rubick
Gilgir · 16 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Ainkrad · 15 games
53%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
AfterLife · 13 games
54%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Ainkrad · 12 games
67%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Panto · 12 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 11 games
55%

Keyd Stars

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
KJ · 20 games
60%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Kingrd · 13 games
69%
Medusa
Medusasignature
hFn · 10 games
100%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Kingrd · 10 games
70%
Puck
Pucksignature
Sooths · 9 games
78%
Visage
Visagesignature
Tavo · 9 games
78%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
KJ · 8 games
75%
Marci
Marcisignature
Kingrd · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
479 picks · 322 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
473 picks · 462 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
463 picks · 407 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
336 picks · 331 bans
54%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
329 picks · 379 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
289 picks · 149 bans
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
263 picks · 659 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
253 picks · 615 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 53%
Hero pool strength58% Keyd Stars
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:15
One Move 61%Keyd Stars 39%
The model gave 61% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 33:26.
Game 2prediction correct22:42
One Move 61%Keyd Stars 39%
The model gave 61% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 33:33.
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 61%
Series resultOne Move 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2