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Riyadh Masters 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
One Movewin 2:0
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HULIGANIloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
SSS · 27 games
56%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Difference · 24 games
29%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 21 game
43%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
WoE · 20 games
35%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 20 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 19 games
21%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Bb3px · 18 games
44%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Gilgir · 16 games
56%

HULIGANI

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
mrls · 21 game
62%
Tiny
Tinysignature
erase · 20 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 18 games
56%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Alberkaaa · 18 games
56%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
queezy · 16 games
38%
Muerta
Muerta
queezy · 15 games
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
erase · 15 games
40%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 15 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
532 picks · 611 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
474 picks · 239 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
461 picks · 431 bans
49%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
375 picks · 791 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
356 picks · 522 bans
51%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
348 picks · 795 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
340 picks · 300 bans
48%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
325 picks · 371 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 54%
Hero pool strength54% HULIGANI
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total64% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:18
One Move 38%HULIGANI 62%
The model gave 62% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by One Move in 55:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeEyesight
45% · 263 games52% · 126 games
BrewmasterMalik
Brewmaster
Primal Beast
Primal BeastCorrupted
46% · 168 games54% · 160 games
Svenv1olent-
Sven
Pangolier
PangolierDifference
46% · 464 games48% · 468 games
Tinyerase
Tiny
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanGilgir
49% · 156 games62% · 117 games
ChenRESPECT
Chen
Oracle
OracleBb3px
46% · 62 games54% · 242 games
Dark Willowmrls
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction missed43:13
One Move 42%HULIGANI 58%
The model gave 58% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by One Move in 34:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightEyesight
45% · 432 games51% · 186 games
Doomv1olent-
Doom
Axe
AxeCorrupted
41% · 31 game55% · 243 games
Storm Spiriterase
Storm Spirit
Void Spirit
Void SpiritDifference
49% · 88 games51% · 210 games
BristlebackMalik
Bristleback
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonGilgir
49% · 308 games55% · 144 games
Nature's ProphetRESPECT
Nature's Prophet
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionBb3px
52% · 186 games49% · 262 games
Tuskmrls
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 64%
Series resultOne Move 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2