CCT Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Movewin 2:0series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Matreshka Teamloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
One Move
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 19 games
Pangolieroften banned
SSS · 19 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
WoE · 18 games
Doomsignature
SSS · 15 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SSS · 14 games
Jakiro
Rein · 14 games
Snapfiresignature
not me · 14 games
Timbersawoften banned
SSS · 13 games
Matreshka Team
Pangolieroften banned
kur0patbI4 · 3 games
Bristlebackoften banned
dizzying · 2 games
Viperoften banned
Egor · 2 games
Visageoften banned
kur0patbI4 · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Chuvash · 1 game
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
kur0patbI4 · 1 game
Clockwerk
Groom · 1 game
Dark Willow
Groom · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
338 picks · 272 bans
Pangolier
335 picks · 435 bans
Enchantress
314 picks · 547 bans
Jakiro
309 picks · 248 bans
Clockwerk
291 picks · 246 bans
Sand King
287 picks · 793 bans
Dragon Knight
286 picks · 467 bans
Windranger
285 picks · 403 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 43%
Hero pool strength52% Matreshka Team
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total76% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:26
One Move 64%Matreshka Team 36%
The model gave 64% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 44:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaWoE
Shadow Fienddizzying
Keeper of the LightDifference
Timbersawkur0patbI4
Night StalkerSSS
KunkkaEgor
Marcinot me
AlchemistGroom
ClockwerkRein
Game 2prediction correct22:23
One Move 62%Matreshka Team 38%
The model gave 62% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 42:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaWoE
Alchemistdizzying
TimbersawSSS
Outworld DestroyerEgor
Ember SpiritDifference
Enigmakur0patbI4
ClockwerkRein
Earth SpiritGroom
Techiesnot me
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 76%
Series resultOne Move 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2