European Pro League Season 18 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Moveloss 0:2series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MOUZwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
One Move
Hoodwink
queezy · 9 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Rein · 7 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SSS · 6 games
Marsoften banned
AfterLife · 6 games
Phoenix
Panto · 6 games
Lion
queezy · 5 games
Leshracoften banned
xn丶e · 4 games
Magnusoften banned
chempik · 4 games
MOUZ
Gyrocopter
Ulnit · 22 games
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 22 games
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 21 game
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 20 games
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 20 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 17 games
Earthshakersignature
NARMAN · 14 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
465 picks · 204 bans
Tiny
419 picks · 578 bans
Batrider
402 picks · 748 bans
Centaur Warrunner
388 picks · 552 bans
Rubick
388 picks · 156 bans
Pangolier
356 picks · 688 bans
Mars
338 picks · 552 bans
Gyrocopter
328 picks · 295 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 60%
Hero pool strength61% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:32
One Move 33%MOUZ 67%
The model gave 67% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 34:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slarkv1olent-
GyrocopterUlnit
Leshracxn丶e
BroodmotherForce
DoomSSS
Keeper of the LightSupream^
TinyWein
Witch Doctorbengan
BaneRein
EarthshakerNARMAN
Game 2prediction correct13:30
One Move 32%MOUZ 68%
The model gave 68% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 30:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puckxn丶e
LunaUlnit
Lifestealerv1olent-
DoomForce
MarsSSS
Keeper of the LightSupream^
TinyWein
Venomancerbengan
GyrocopterRein
Dark WillowNARMAN
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 78%
Series resultMOUZ 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2