?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
One Movewin 2:1
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
queezy · 7 games
14%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Panto · 6 games
17%
Lion
Lion
queezy · 5 games
40%
Mars
Marsoften banned
AfterLife · 5 games
20%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
chempik · 4 games
25%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
chempik · 4 games
25%
Pudge
Pudgeoften banned
chempik · 4 games
50%
Techies
Techies
Xakoda · 4 games
25%

Natus Vincere Junior

Snapfire
Snapfire
Daze · 30 games
43%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Riddys · 23 games
52%
Lion
Lion
Riddys · 20 games
45%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 19 games
37%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
gotthejuice · 17 games
29%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
gotthejuice · 15 games
60%
Pugna
Pugna
Riddys · 15 games
47%
Marci
Marcisignature
Daze · 13 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
394 picks · 642 bans
56%
Lion
Lion
384 picks · 355 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
378 picks · 611 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
374 picks · 305 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
357 picks · 772 bans
57%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
349 picks · 351 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
342 picks · 397 bans
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
333 picks · 202 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 55%
Hero pool strength55% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
One Move 41%Natus Vincere Junior 59%
The model gave 59% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior.
Game 2prediction missed6:2
One Move 41%Natus Vincere Junior 59%
The model gave 59% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by One Move in 13:04.
Game 3prediction missed
One Move 41%Natus Vincere Junior 59%
The model gave 59% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by One Move.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 59%
Series resultOne Move 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3