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The International 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
One Movewin 2:1
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
SSS · 26 games
58%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Difference · 24 games
29%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 21 game
43%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 20 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 19 games
21%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
WoE · 17 games
29%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Bb3px · 17 games
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Gilgir · 16 games
56%

Nemiga Gaming

Jakiro
Jakiro
monodrama · 9 games
33%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
спортик · 8 games
0%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
спортик · 8 games
25%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Covisnine · 6 games
83%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
bashka · 6 games
33%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
спортик · 5 games
60%
Muerta
Muerta
Shishak · 5 games
20%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
bashka · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
481 picks · 446 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
473 picks · 555 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
445 picks · 227 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
348 picks · 685 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
310 picks · 466 bans
54%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
301 picks · 700 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
296 picks · 248 bans
46%
Windranger
Windranger
288 picks · 88 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% One Move
Head-to-head7 – 1
Model total64% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:11
One Move 53%Nemiga Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 34:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightEyesight
45% · 355 games58% · 320 games
Tinybashka
Tiny
Axe
AxeCorrupted
43% · 21 game51% · 160 games
Monkey Kingyoung G
Monkey King
Void Spirit
Void SpiritDifference
46% · 77 games52% · 140 games
Centaur WarrunnerCovisnine
Centaur Warrunner
Dark Willow
Dark WillowGilgir
47% · 201 game55% · 31 game
Oraclemonodrama
Oracle
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionBb3px
52% · 157 games48% · 160 games
Windrangerxsvampire
Windranger
Game 2prediction missed25:43
One Move 58%Nemiga Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on One Move — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 46:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Primal Beast
Primal BeastCorrupted
52% · 236 games45% · 125 games
Svenbashka
Sven
Ursa
UrsaEyesight
58% · 143 games49% · 368 games
PangolierCovisnine
Pangolier
Batrider
BatriderDifference
47% · 247 games52% · 70 games
Void Spirityoung G
Void Spirit
Undying
UndyingBb3px
56% · 36 games42% · 265 games
Muertaxsvampire
Muerta
Dark Willow
Dark WillowGilgir
51% · 221 game49% · 55 games
Ancient Apparitionmonodrama
Ancient Apparition
Game 3prediction correct34:12
One Move 58%Nemiga Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 30:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightEyesight
52% · 301 game50% · 16 games
Death Prophetyoung G
Death Prophet
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCorrupted
49% · 167 games55% · 363 games
Tinybashka
Tiny
Void Spirit
Void SpiritDifference
41% · 66 games55% · 15 games
AxeCovisnine
Axe
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetBb3px
54% · 148 games50% · 254 games
Jakiromonodrama
Jakiro
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanGilgir
53% · 135 games45% · 169 games
Dark Willowxsvampire
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 64%
Series resultOne Move 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3