Лига Ставок Dota 2 Champions League Season 16 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Movewin 2:0series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
NVNo Visionloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
One Move
Sand Kingsignature
mellojul · 13 games
Chensignature
Panto · 12 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 11 games
Pangoliersignature
mellojul · 11 games
Tiny
sayuw · 11 games
Hoodwink
sayuw · 10 games
Marcioften banned
sayuw · 10 games
Miranasignature
sayuw · 10 games
No Vision
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 4 games
Mirana
jAMES · 3 games
Tiny
Chira JUNIOR · 3 games
Clockwerk
jAMES · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 1 game
Hoodwink
jAMES · 1 game
Linaoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 1 game
Rubick
jAMES · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
393 picks · 599 bans
Tiny
356 picks · 265 bans
Undying
323 picks · 549 bans
Enigma
246 picks · 769 bans
Pangolier
234 picks · 339 bans
Death Prophet
227 picks · 346 bans
Primal Beast
223 picks · 421 bans
Batrider
204 picks · 724 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 50%
Hero pool strength60% One Move
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:17
One Move 73%No Vision 27%
The model gave 73% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 41:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spiritmellojul
KunkkaChira JUNIOR
PudgeSmiling Knight
TinyjAMES
EnigmaAfterLife
Undyingxsvampire
Crystal MaidenPanto
Game 2prediction correct60:28
One Move 73%No Vision 27%
The model gave 73% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 51:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingSmiling Knight
Storm SpiritChira JUNIOR
Tinkermellojul
TuskjAMES
MarsAfterLife
Snapfirexsvampire
UndyingPanto
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 87%
Series resultOne Move 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2