Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
One Movewin 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PARI PARNIloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
One Move
Banesignature
Panto · 32 games
Miranasignature
sayuw · 30 games
Sand Kingsignature
mellojul · 28 games
Pangolieroften banned
mellojul · 27 games
Storm Spiritsignature
mellojul · 27 games
Marssignature
AfterLife · 20 games
Medusasignature
Smiling Knight · 19 games
Death Prophetsignature
AfterLife · 15 games
PARI PARNI
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
550 picks · 461 bans
Mars
440 picks · 688 bans
Dragon Knight
426 picks · 541 bans
Bane
396 picks · 278 bans
Puck
356 picks · 817 bans
Pangolier
351 picks · 577 bans
Ember Spirit
334 picks · 638 bans
Chaos Knight
332 picks · 660 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 30%
Hero pool strength62% One Move
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:11
One Move 60%PARI PARNI 40%
The model gave 60% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 31:27.
Game 2prediction correct
One Move 60%PARI PARNI 40%
The model gave 60% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move.
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 60%
Series resultOne Move 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2