Фиджитал Игры по Dota 2. Сезон 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Movewin 2:1series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Polaris Esportsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
One Move
Enchantressoften banned
Panto · 11 games
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 11 games
Disruptorsignature
Panto · 9 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ainkrad · 9 games
Mirana
Gilgir · 9 games
Rubick
Gilgir · 9 games
Techiesoften banned
Gilgir · 9 games
Timbersawsignature
AfterLife · 9 games
Polaris Esports
Nature's Prophet
Bok · 16 games
Rubick
Boomy · 15 games
Dark Willowsignature
cml · 13 games
Marcioften banned
Jing · 12 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Enryu · 10 games
Death Prophetsignature
Bok · 10 games
Lichsignature
cml · 10 games
Rikisignature
Jing · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
643 picks · 687 bans
Rubick
521 picks · 342 bans
Doom
443 picks · 960 bans
Batrider
426 picks · 932 bans
Ember Spirit
407 picks · 859 bans
Storm Spirit
391 picks · 859 bans
Beastmaster
388 picks · 994 bans
Void Spirit
388 picks · 345 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 54%
Hero pool strength54% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:27
One Move 52%Polaris Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on One Move — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 46:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidMunkushi~
Queen of PainMac
Templar Assassinre1bl
Wraith KingAkashi
UnderlordAfterLife
Dark SeerEnryu
SnapfireGilgir
Spirit BreakerBoomy
UndyingPanto
Lichcml
Game 2prediction correct42:27
One Move 53%Polaris Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 41:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenMunkushi~
MeepoAkashi
Ember Spiritre1bl
NecrophosMac
Legion CommanderAfterLife
BroodmotherEnryu
RubickPanto
LionBoomy
BatriderGilgir
Elder Titancml
Game 3prediction correct41:19
One Move 52%Polaris Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 42:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeMunkushi~
Queen of PainMac
Puckre1bl
MorphlingAkashi
BatriderGilgir
AxeEnryu
EnchantressPanto
EarthshakerBoomy
Legion CommanderAfterLife
Skywrath Magecml
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 58%
Series resultOne Move 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3