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ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
One Moveloss 1:2
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 1:2
PuckChampwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Difference · 20 games
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
WoE · 16 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
SSS · 15 games
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Rein · 14 games
79%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Rein · 14 games
29%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
not me · 14 games
79%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
SSS · 13 games
46%
Doom
Doomsignature
SSS · 12 games
67%

PuckChamp

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Shad · 1 game
100%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Kaori · 1 game
100%
Lion
Lion
QBFY · 1 game
100%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Sancity · 1 game
100%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
BOOM · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
436 picks · 576 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
373 picks · 390 bans
53%
Luna
Luna
323 picks · 386 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
319 picks · 450 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
303 picks · 573 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
285 picks · 155 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
266 picks · 325 bans
51%
Sand King
Sand King
258 picks · 766 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 75%
Hero pool strength54% PuckChamp
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:30
One Move 43%PuckChamp 57%
The model gave 57% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 47:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterWoE
44% · 270 games50% · 342 games
Dragon KnightShad
Dragon Knight
Sand King
Sand KingSSS
47% · 171 game54% · 311 games
Primal BeastBOOM
Primal Beast
Invoker
InvokerDifference
55% · 117 games54% · 135 games
Earth SpiritSancity
Earth Spirit
Enchantress
EnchantressRein
45% · 373 games52% · 322 games
Shadow DemonKaori
Shadow Demon
Hoodwink
Hoodwinknot me
48% · 318 games53% · 139 games
Nyx AssassinQBFY
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction missed30:13
One Move 45%PuckChamp 55%
The model gave 55% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by One Move in 36:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaWoE
46% · 143 games46% · 171 game
TimbersawSancity
Timbersaw
Monkey King
Monkey KingDifference
55% · 151 game50% · 152 games
GyrocopterShad
Gyrocopter
Alchemist
AlchemistSSS
52% · 154 games51% · 35 games
Anti-MageBOOM
Anti-Mage
Pugna
PugnaRein
51% · 155 games45% · 146 games
Crystal MaidenKaori
Crystal Maiden
Marci
Marcinot me
55% · 103 games51% · 202 games
HoodwinkQBFY
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction correct17:34
One Move 45%PuckChamp 55%
The model gave 55% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 47:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSSS
52% · 162 games46% · 182 games
LunaShad
Luna
Bristleback
BristlebackWoE
50% · 169 games47% · 254 games
PangolierBOOM
Pangolier
Monkey King
Monkey KingDifference
55% · 184 games50% · 93 games
MagnusSancity
Magnus
Marci
Marcinot me
50% · 163 games50% · 221 game
EnchantressKaori
Enchantress
Pugna
PugnaRein
50% · 234 games50% · 162 games
Dark WillowQBFY
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 62%
Series resultPuckChamp 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3