European Pro League Season 26 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Movewin 2:1series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Runa Teamloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
One Move
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 29 games
Bristlebackoften banned
SSS · 26 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 25 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 24 games
Muerta
not me · 22 games
Tinyoften banned
Difference · 20 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
WoE · 19 games
Marcisignature
not me · 18 games
Runa Team
Ringmaster
Mary_y · 2 games
Sven
Shigetsu · 2 games
Tinyoften banned
queezy · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 1 game
Bristlebackoften banned
Alberkaaa · 1 game
Elder Titan
Mary_y · 1 game
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
queezy · 1 game
Medusaoften banned
Alberkaaa · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
447 picks · 669 bans
Jakiro
409 picks · 405 bans
Phantom Assassin
352 picks · 721 bans
Bristleback
325 picks · 613 bans
Dragon Knight
316 picks · 526 bans
Muerta
313 picks · 187 bans
Beastmaster
299 picks · 585 bans
Warlock
296 picks · 272 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 60%
Hero pool strength57% Runa Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:6
One Move 57%Runa Team 43%
The model gave 57% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 27:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusazvёzd
TinyShigetsu
SlarkEyesight
Storm Spiritnicky`cool
Monkey KingDifference
UnderlordAlberkaaa
WarlockBb3px
Keeper of the Lightqueezy
TuskGilgir
Elder TitanMary_y
Game 2prediction missed19:31
One Move 56%Runa Team 44%
The model gave 56% on One Move — the game was taken by Runa Team in 44:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SlarkEyesight
Phantom AssassinShigetsu
Storm SpiritDifference
BristlebackAlberkaaa
Underlordzvёzd
Tinynicky`cool
Keeper of the LightGilgir
Windrangerqueezy
TuskBb3px
JakiroMary_y
Game 3prediction correct27:29
One Move 56%Runa Team 44%
The model gave 56% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 37:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingEyesight
SlarkShigetsu
LeshracDifference
Storm Spiritnicky`cool
Beastmasterzvёzd
TerrorbladeAlberkaaa
TuskGilgir
Windrangerqueezy
JakiroBb3px
WarlockMary_y
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 64%
Series resultOne Move 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3