ESL One Malaysia 2022. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
One Moveloss 0:1series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 0:1
SSCAGIwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
One Move
Banesignature
Panto · 31 game
Miranasignature
sayuw · 31 game
Sand Kingsignature
mellojul · 29 games
Storm Spiritsignature
mellojul · 28 games
Pangolieroften banned
mellojul · 27 games
Marssignature
AfterLife · 20 games
Medusasignature
Smiling Knight · 19 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 15 games
SCAGI
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
577 picks · 444 bans
Puck
417 picks · 890 bans
Mars
363 picks · 580 bans
Dragon Knight
351 picks · 465 bans
Snapfire
350 picks · 178 bans
Bane
316 picks · 202 bans
Dawnbreaker
313 picks · 368 bans
Ember Spirit
292 picks · 568 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 29%
Hero pool strength61% One Move
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
One Move 84%SCAGI 16%
The model gave 84% on One Move — the game was taken by SCAGI.
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 84%
Series resultSCAGI 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1