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CCT Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Movewin 2:1
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Hryvnialoss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
queezy · 11 games
36%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SSS · 10 games
30%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Rein · 9 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SSS · 9 games
22%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
xn丶e · 9 games
33%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Panto · 9 games
11%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Rein · 8 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
xn丶e · 8 games
63%

Team Hryvnia

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
410 picks · 612 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
354 picks · 378 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
353 picks · 131 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
341 picks · 449 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
320 picks · 353 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
311 picks · 164 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
309 picks · 582 bans
49%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
307 picks · 414 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 46%
Hero pool strength55% Team Hryvnia
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:15
One Move 62%Team Hryvnia 38%
The model gave 62% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 33:57.
Game 2prediction missed33:40
One Move 62%Team Hryvnia 38%
The model gave 62% on One Move — the game was taken by Team Hryvnia in 45:57.
Game 3prediction correct9:6
One Move 62%Team Hryvnia 38%
The model gave 62% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 7:08.
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 62%
Series resultOne Move 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3