Игры Будущего 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Moveloss 1:2series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Winter Bearwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
One Move
Disruptor
Xakoda · 9 games
Phoenixoften banned
Panto · 9 games
Dawnbreaker
AfterLife · 7 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Ainkrad · 7 games
Hoodwink
queezy · 6 games
Rubick
Xakoda · 6 games
Skywrath Mage
Panto · 6 games
Batrideroften banned
Panto · 5 games
Winter Bear
Vengeful Spirit
Stoic · 12 games
Rubick
Jeezy · 6 games
Lion
Jeezy · 5 games
Tiny
Jeezy · 5 games
Clockwerk
Stoic · 4 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lowskill · 4 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
Jeezy · 4 games
Phoenixoften banned
Jeezy · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
350 picks · 301 bans
Centaur Warrunner
332 picks · 510 bans
Vengeful Spirit
314 picks · 295 bans
Pangolier
270 picks · 365 bans
Magnus
253 picks · 450 bans
Luna
245 picks · 226 bans
Phoenix
244 picks · 365 bans
Techies
239 picks · 149 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 55%
Hero pool strength57% Winter Bear
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:33
One Move 55%Winter Bear 45%
The model gave 55% on One Move — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 55:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lunanesfeer
Troll Warlordlayme
EarthshakerAinkrad
HoodwinkJeezy
MarsAfterLife
Crystal MaidenStoic
ChenPanto
LionGilgir
Game 2prediction correct25:10
One Move 59%Winter Bear 41%
The model gave 59% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 47:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlordnesfeer
Bloodseekerlayme
EarthshakerAinkrad
RubickJeezy
MarsAfterLife
Crystal MaidenStoic
LionGilgir
ChenPanto
Game 3prediction missed25:26
One Move 52%Winter Bear 48%
The model gave 52% on One Move — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 40:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slarknesfeer
Troll Warlordlayme
TimbersawAinkrad
LionJeezy
HoodwinkGilgir
PhoenixStoic
MarsAfterLife
Vengeful SpiritPanto
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 61%
Series resultWinter Bear 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3