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Лига Ставок Dota 2 Champions League Season 16 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Moveloss 1:2
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 1:2
X3win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
mellojul · 13 games
69%
Chen
Chensignature
Panto · 12 games
92%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 12 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
mellojul · 11 games
64%
Tiny
Tiny
sayuw · 11 games
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
sayuw · 10 games
40%
Marci
Marcioften banned
sayuw · 10 games
50%
Mirana
Miranasignature
sayuw · 10 games
80%

X3

Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Shergarat · 23 games
57%
Marci
Marcioften banned
velheor · 21 game
52%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Shergarat · 17 games
71%
Puck
Puckoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 17 games
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
dark · 16 games
56%
Tiny
Tinysignature
velheor · 16 games
69%
Zeus
Zeussignature
velheor · 16 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Shergarat · 15 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
Marci
394 picks · 603 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
356 picks · 264 bans
51%
Undying
Undying
326 picks · 552 bans
55%
Enigma
Enigma
246 picks · 772 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
235 picks · 342 bans
54%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
227 picks · 431 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
225 picks · 342 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
206 picks · 98 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 63%
Hero pool strength54% One Move
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:27
One Move 62%X3 38%
The model gave 62% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 49:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenSmiling Knight
58% · 43 games53% · 156 games
LinaNattyNarwhal
Lina
Tidehunter
TidehunterAfterLife
48% · 94 games47% · 84 games
Lifestealernesfeer
Lifestealer
Tiny
Tinyxsvampire
50% · 269 games47% · 67 games
BroodmotherShergarat
Broodmother
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritmellojul
56% · 121 game49% · 195 games
Hoodwinkvelheor
Hoodwink
Silencer
SilencerPanto
42% · 46 games49% · 71 game
Crystal Maiden633
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction missed29:40
One Move 64%X3 36%
The model gave 64% on One Move — the game was taken by X3 in 40:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomAfterLife
48% · 163 games53% · 106 games
Faceless Voidnesfeer
Faceless Void
Sniper
SniperSmiling Knight
41% · 59 games54% · 191 game
PangolierNattyNarwhal
Pangolier
Primal Beast
Primal Beastnicky`cool
54% · 110 games53% · 141 game
BeastmasterShergarat
Beastmaster
Mirana
Miranaxsvampire
56% · 212 games53% · 320 games
Tinyvelheor
Tiny
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPanto
45% · 262 games38% · 48 games
Lich633
Lich
Game 3prediction missed19:32
One Move 64%X3 36%
The model gave 64% on One Move — the game was taken by X3 in 37:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pudge
PudgeOtaker
57% · 78 games46% · 69 games
Gyrocopternesfeer
Gyrocopter
Tusk
Tusknicky`cool
55% · 162 games44% · 161 game
ZeusNattyNarwhal
Zeus
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerAfterLife
44% · 225 games47% · 49 games
BroodmotherShergarat
Broodmother
Enigma
EnigmaPanto
58% · 171 game51% · 425 games
Tinyvelheor
Tiny
Mirana
Miranaxsvampire
53% · 131 game43% · 63 games
Vengeful Spirit633
Vengeful Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 74%
Series resultX3 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3