BetBoom Xmas Show · BO3
result vs prediction
One Movewin 2:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
X3loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
One Move
Tiny
sayuw · 20 games
Mirana
Gilgir · 14 games
Pangoliersignature
mellojul · 13 games
Timbersawoften banned
AfterLife · 13 games
Chensignature
Panto · 11 games
Hoodwink
sayuw · 10 games
Marcisignature
sayuw · 10 games
Queen of Painsignature
mellojul · 10 games
X3
Tinysignature
velheor · 23 games
Enigmaoften banned
Shergarat · 21 game
Marcioften banned
velheor · 21 game
Pangoliersignature
NattyNarwhal · 19 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Shergarat · 17 games
Dawnbreakersignature
Shergarat · 17 games
Zeussignature
NattyNarwhal · 16 games
Jakirosignature
dark · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
342 picks · 297 bans
Tusk
278 picks · 249 bans
Marci
273 picks · 523 bans
Undying
252 picks · 450 bans
Pangolier
236 picks · 501 bans
Primal Beast
221 picks · 545 bans
Shadow Fiend
214 picks · 317 bans
Crystal Maiden
202 picks · 116 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 62%
Hero pool strength51% X3
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total61% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:35
One Move 52%X3 48%
The model gave 52% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 53:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow RangerMunkushi~
Morphlingnesfeer
Void SpiritAinkrad
PuckNattyNarwhal
MagnusAfterLife
DoomShergarat
RubickGilgir
Hoodwinkalone
ClockwerkPanto
Undyingdark
Game 2prediction correct47:16
One Move 56%X3 44%
The model gave 56% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 33:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos KnightMunkushi~
Naga Sirennesfeer
LycanAfterLife
SnapfireNattyNarwhal
PangolierAinkrad
ViperShergarat
Crystal MaidenPanto
Tinyalone
Monkey KingGilgir
Silencerdark
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 61%
Series resultOne Move 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2