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CCT Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Movewin 2:0
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Y5 Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 31 game
35%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 25 games
44%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
SSS · 23 games
52%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 23 games
43%
Muerta
Muerta
not me · 22 games
45%
Marci
Marcisignature
not me · 20 games
70%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
SSS · 19 games
58%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
not me · 18 games
22%

Y5 Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Dominic · 5 games
40%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Dominic · 3 games
33%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Dominic · 2 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Dominic · 2 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Dominic · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
569 picks · 791 bans
49%
Muerta
Muerta
453 picks · 327 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
443 picks · 691 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
424 picks · 770 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
408 picks · 392 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
407 picks · 885 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
392 picks · 1080 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
390 picks · 535 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Y5 Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:14
One Move 65%Y5 Esports 35%
The model gave 65% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 28:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingEyesight
50% · 115 games47% · 470 games
PangolierDominic
Pangolier
Bristleback
BristlebackChodΣX
58% · 88 games
Monkey King
Monkey KingDifference
58% · 98 games
Clockwerk
ClockwerkGilgir
53% · 161 game
Ringmaster
RingmasterBb3px
42% · 8 games
Game 3prediction correct38:8
One Move 62%Y5 Esports 38%
The model gave 62% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 30:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinEyesight
38% · 25 games61% · 122 games
Dark SeerDominic
Dark Seer
Underlord
UnderlordChodΣX
36% · 29 games
Slardar
SlardarDifference
45% · 25 games
Silencer
SilencerBb3px
29% · 10 games
Tusk
TuskGilgir
43% · 33 games
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 77%
Series resultOne Move 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2