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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
OnlyRichsPlayersHereloss 0:2
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Apex Genesiswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OnlyRichsPlayersHere

No games played over 6 months.

Apex Genesis

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 3 games
33%
Pugna
Pugna
BliNcc · 3 games
33%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
YamSun · 3 games
67%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Lowskill · 2 games
100%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
YamSun · 2 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Fayde · 2 games
100%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
red2 · 2 games
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
red2 · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
419 picks · 680 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
396 picks · 637 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
392 picks · 360 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
392 picks · 320 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
377 picks · 831 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
376 picks · 455 bans
54%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
357 picks · 358 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
349 picks · 588 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% Apex Genesis
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Apex Genesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:32
OnlyRichsPlayersHere 27%Apex Genesis 73%
The model gave 73% on Apex Genesis — the game was taken by Apex Genesis in 37:54.
Game 2prediction correct39:14
OnlyRichsPlayersHere 27%Apex Genesis 73%
The model gave 73% on Apex Genesis — the game was taken by Apex Genesis in 26:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteApex Genesis · 73%
Series resultApex Genesis 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2