FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Pacific esportsloss 0:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Flamewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Pacific esports
Muerta
Mingatte · 1 game
Flame
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
471 picks · 592 bans
Muerta
463 picks · 398 bans
Batrider
453 picks · 560 bans
Clockwerk
429 picks · 534 bans
Gyrocopter
419 picks · 777 bans
Tiny
416 picks · 475 bans
Magnus
400 picks · 886 bans
Lion
396 picks · 233 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 40%
Hero pool strength56% Flame
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Flame
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Pacific esports 50%Flame 50%
The model gave 50% on Flame — the game was taken by Flame.
Game 2prediction correct
Pacific esports 50%Flame 50%
The model gave 50% on Flame — the game was taken by Flame.
Model check result
Model favoriteFlame · 50%
Series resultFlame 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2