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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Pacific esportswin 2:0
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Kaiserloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Pacific esports

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mingatte · 2 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Mingatte · 1 game
0%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Mingatte · 1 game
0%

Kaiser

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Valquiria · 5 games
0%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Argius · 3 games
33%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Argius · 3 games
33%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Argius · 3 games
67%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Argius · 3 games
0%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Valquiria · 3 games
0%
Bristleback
Bristleback
Valquiria · 2 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Cara · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
412 picks · 664 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
390 picks · 626 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
387 picks · 359 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
386 picks · 315 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
371 picks · 811 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
367 picks · 433 bans
54%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
355 picks · 358 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
339 picks · 205 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 45%
Hero pool strength51% Pacific esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Pacific esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Pacific esports 52%Kaiser 48%
The model gave 52% on Pacific esports — the game was taken by Pacific esports.
Game 2prediction correct
Pacific esports 52%Kaiser 48%
The model gave 52% on Pacific esports — the game was taken by Pacific esports.
Model check result
Model favoritePacific esports · 52%
Series resultPacific esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2