PGL Wallachia Season 2. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionPTPacific Teamloss 1:2
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Gods of Hellwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Pacific Team
No games played over 6 months.
Gods of Hell
Windrangeroften banned
N1NE · 2 games
Clockwerkoften banned
N1NE · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
CarJua · 1 game
Hoodwinkoften banned
N1NE · 1 game
Juggernautoften banned
CarJua · 1 game
Troll Warlordoften banned
CarJua · 1 game
Ursaoften banned
CarJua · 1 game
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
N1NE · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
408 picks · 442 bans
Rubick
407 picks · 325 bans
Weaver
389 picks · 824 bans
Tiny
381 picks · 878 bans
Phoenix
361 picks · 719 bans
Pangolier
339 picks · 516 bans
Clockwerk
336 picks · 486 bans
Dragon Knight
299 picks · 539 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 46%
Hero pool strength53% Pacific Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Pacific Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:43
Pacific Team 56%Gods of Hell 44%
The model gave 56% on Pacific Team — the game was taken by Gods of Hell in 36:16.
Game 2prediction correct7:27
Pacific Team 56%Gods of Hell 44%
The model gave 56% on Pacific Team — the game was taken by Pacific Team in 22:05.
Game 3prediction missed42:14
Pacific Team 56%Gods of Hell 44%
The model gave 56% on Pacific Team — the game was taken by Gods of Hell in 24:09.
Model check result
Model favoritePacific Team · 56%
Series resultGods of Hell 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3