CCT Season 2 Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
paiN Gamingwin 2:0series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
AVULUSloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
paiN Gaming
Jakirooften banned
Elmisho · 4 games
Razoroften banned
DarkMago · 4 games
Clockwerk
Scofield · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
DarkMago · 3 games
Slardaroften banned
Frank · 3 games
Tusk
Scofield · 3 games
Underlordoften banned
Frank · 3 games
Lifestealeroften banned
Smiling Knight · 2 games
AVULUS
Jakirooften banned
asdekor_r · 25 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
dualrazee · 25 games
Puckoften banned
dualrazee · 22 games
Warlock
asdekor_r · 17 games
Tidehuntersignature
Corrupted · 16 games
Marssignature
Corrupted · 15 games
Ringmaster
Wein · 15 games
Shadow Shaman
Wein · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
587 picks · 818 bans
Tiny
528 picks · 547 bans
Tusk
427 picks · 395 bans
Warlock
425 picks · 293 bans
Shadow Demon
388 picks · 1015 bans
Ember Spirit
384 picks · 657 bans
Mars
366 picks · 584 bans
Centaur Warrunner
349 picks · 518 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)27% vs 44%
Hero pool strength54% AVULUS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:8
paiN Gaming 49%AVULUS 51%
The model gave 51% on AVULUS — the game was taken by paiN Gaming in 31:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaWits
Templar AssassinDarkLord^
BeastmasterFrank
Puckdualrazee
Sand KingDarkMago
SlardarPalantimos
WarlockElmisho
Chenasdekor_r
Shadow ShamanScofield
Shadow Demonqueezy
Game 2prediction missed25:5
paiN Gaming 48%AVULUS 52%
The model gave 52% on AVULUS — the game was taken by paiN Gaming in 25:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaWits
Invokerdualrazee
RazorDarkMago
GyrocopterDarkLord^
TidehunterFrank
MarsPalantimos
Shadow ShamanElmisho
Tinyqueezy
RingmasterScofield
Jakiroasdekor_r
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 51%
Series resultpaiN Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2