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ESL One Birmingham 2026 · BO2
result vs prediction
paiN Gamingloss 1:1
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

paiN Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 8 games
63%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Elmisho · 8 games
38%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Scofield · 8 games
38%
Luna
Luna
Wits · 7 games
43%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
DarkMago · 7 games
57%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Elmisho · 7 games
43%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Elmisho · 7 games
43%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Wits · 7 games
43%

Nigma Galaxy

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
GH · 25 games
28%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 24 games
54%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
OmaR · 20 games
50%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
GH · 19 games
63%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
SumaiL · 19 games
53%
Muerta
Muerta
SumaiL · 18 games
44%
Mars
Marsoften banned
No!ob · 17 games
24%
Puck
Puckoften banned
SumaiL · 17 games
41%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
691 picks · 845 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
597 picks · 613 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
492 picks · 423 bans
50%
Warlock
Warlock
487 picks · 338 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
425 picks · 1112 bans
56%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
407 picks · 1031 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
402 picks · 701 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
393 picks · 633 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 45%
Hero pool strength50% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:25
paiN Gaming 48%Nigma Galaxy 52%
The model gave 52% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by paiN Gaming in 53:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritDarkMago
49% · 305 games52% · 21 game
Meeporincyq
Meepo
Enigma
EnigmaFrank
45% · 76 games44% · 219 games
Void SpiritNo!ob
Void Spirit
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinWits
58% · 205 games53% · 89 games
ViperDavai
Viper
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonElmisho
55% · 311 games49% · 497 games
TuskOmaR
Tusk
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinScofield
48% · 66 games49% · 137 games
DazzleGH
Dazzle
Game 2prediction correct22:31
paiN Gaming 47%Nigma Galaxy 53%
The model gave 53% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 45:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaWits
44% · 66 games54% · 216 games
Medusarincyq
Medusa
Sand King
Sand KingDarkMago
49% · 194 games45% · 460 games
BeastmasterNo!ob
Beastmaster
Bristleback
BristlebackFrank
49% · 299 games53% · 173 games
Primal BeastDavai
Primal Beast
Warlock
WarlockElmisho
48% · 422 games58% · 146 games
Keeper of the LightGH
Keeper of the Light
Tusk
TuskScofield
46% · 429 games54% · 415 games
Shadow ShamanOmaR
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 56%
Accuracy by game1 of 2