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RES Regional Series: EU #4 · BO2
result vs prediction
Palianytsialoss 1:1
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Night Pulseloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Palianytsia

Doom
Doomoften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 2 games
100%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Moonlight · 2 games
100%
Snapfire
Snapfire
QBFY · 2 games
100%
Tusk
Tusk
kreker · 2 games
100%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Crystallize · 1 game
100%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Crystallize · 1 game
100%

Night Pulse

Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
JANTER · 23 games
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Hduo · 20 games
45%
Ursa
Ursasignature
V-Tune · 19 games
68%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 17 games
59%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Kami · 17 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 16 games
44%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Hduo · 16 games
56%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Hduo · 15 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
361 picks · 348 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
356 picks · 403 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
341 picks · 257 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
318 picks · 512 bans
48%
Sven
Sven
295 picks · 306 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
279 picks · 253 bans
52%
Windranger
Windranger
273 picks · 353 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
270 picks · 474 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 62%
Hero pool strength57% Palianytsia
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Palianytsia
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:6
Palianytsia 51%Night Pulse 49%
The model gave 51% on Palianytsia — the game was taken by Palianytsia in 43:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightCrystallize
48% · 260 games55% · 172 games
LunaV-Tune
Luna
Invoker
InvokerPanda
45% · 89 games50% · 261 game
PangolierWorick
Pangolier
Kunkka
KunkkaVladikTheHtiviy
45% · 224 games58% · 88 games
EnigmaKami
Enigma
Snapfire
SnapfireQBFY
46% · 127 games54% · 117 games
LeshracJANTER
Leshrac
Omniknight
Omniknightkreker
56% · 27 games49% · 89 games
Elder TitanHduo
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction missed28:46
Palianytsia 54%Night Pulse 46%
The model gave 54% on Palianytsia — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 34:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingCrystallize
53% · 130 games52% · 102 games
MedusaV-Tune
Medusa
Doom
DoomVladikTheHtiviy
53% · 157 games42% · 99 games
Nature's ProphetKami
Nature's Prophet
Alchemist
Alchemistkreker
61% · 53 games44% · 92 games
SniperWorick
Sniper
Mars
MarsPanda
54% · 90 games52% · 97 games
MarciJANTER
Marci
Snapfire
SnapfireQBFY
50% · 101 game42% · 141 game
JakiroHduo
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoritePalianytsia · 51%
Accuracy by game1 of 2