RES Regional Series: EU #4 · BO2
result vs prediction
Palianytsialoss 1:1series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:1
TTopTabloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Palianytsia
Snapfiresignature
QBFY · 6 games
Doomoften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 3 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Moonlight · 3 games
Kunkkaoften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 3 games
Omniknightoften banned
kreker · 3 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Moonlight · 3 games
Tuskoften banned
kreker · 3 games
Leshracoften banned
QBFY · 2 games
TopTab
Treant Protector
smN · 3 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Shergarat · 2 games
Enigmaoften banned
Shergarat · 2 games
Lone Druidoften banned
Shergarat · 2 games
Omniknightoften banned
smN · 2 games
Abaddon
smN · 1 game
Broodmotheroften banned
Shergarat · 1 game
Disruptor
smN · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
350 picks · 259 bans
Rubick
349 picks · 336 bans
Hoodwink
345 picks · 401 bans
Pangolier
326 picks · 496 bans
Snapfire
296 picks · 264 bans
Sven
292 picks · 305 bans
Windranger
283 picks · 392 bans
Dragon Knight
281 picks · 454 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 25%
Hero pool strength58% Palianytsia
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Palianytsia
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:26
Palianytsia 58%TopTab 42%
The model gave 58% on Palianytsia — the game was taken by TopTab in 41:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverCrystallize
OmniknightsmN
Storm SpiritMoonlight
Primal BeastVladikTheHtiviy
SnapfireQBFY
Tuskkreker
Game 2prediction missed
Palianytsia 64%TopTab 36%
The model gave 64% on Palianytsia — the game was taken by TopTab.
Model check result
Model favoritePalianytsia · 64%
Accuracy by game0 of 2