DreamLeague Season 24. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
PAPAYA TEAMwin 1:0series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Pparniloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PAPAYA TEAM
No games played over 6 months.
parni
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
349 picks · 259 bans
Rubick
343 picks · 331 bans
Hoodwink
337 picks · 387 bans
Pangolier
330 picks · 483 bans
Snapfire
310 picks · 266 bans
Sven
290 picks · 303 bans
Dragon Knight
286 picks · 446 bans
Enchantress
286 picks · 474 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% PAPAYA TEAM
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total52% parni
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
PAPAYA TEAM 48%parni 52%
The model gave 52% on parni — the game was taken by PAPAYA TEAM.
Model check result
Model favoriteparni · 52%
Series resultPAPAYA TEAM 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1