Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Paradox Esportsloss 1:2series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Balrogswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Paradox Esports
Tiny
Pamplona · 2 games
Alchemistoften banned
Benny · 1 game
Chaos Knightoften banned
Lissex · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
H1j4ck · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Lissex · 1 game
Ogre Magi
555k · 1 game
Primal Beastoften banned
Lissex · 1 game
Queen of Painoften banned
Robo-Z · 1 game
Balrogs
Rubicksignature
Demon · 8 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 4 games
Silenceroften banned
ShakaLord · 4 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
ShakaLord · 3 games
Jakiro
ShakaLord · 3 games
Razoroften banned
drakesh1t · 3 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 3 games
Tuskoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
433 picks · 437 bans
Rubick
431 picks · 285 bans
Tiny
420 picks · 392 bans
Mirana
316 picks · 319 bans
Treant Protector
282 picks · 335 bans
Snapfire
254 picks · 134 bans
Ember Spirit
231 picks · 605 bans
Crystal Maiden
225 picks · 159 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 64%
Hero pool strength68% Balrogs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Balrogs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:12
Paradox Esports 35%Balrogs 65%
The model gave 65% on Balrogs — the game was taken by Paradox Esports in 42:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Primal BeastLissex
Lone DruidDM
27% · 26 games
Death ProphetÑengoflow KELOKE
45% · 16 games
Timbersawdrakesh1t
63% · 47 games
ClockwerkDemon
48% · 17 games
JakiroShakaLord
Game 2prediction correct16:26
Paradox Esports 35%Balrogs 65%
The model gave 65% on Balrogs — the game was taken by Balrogs in 35:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Primal BeastLissex
Troll WarlordDM
58% · 32 games
LeshracÑengoflow KELOKE
27% · 26 games
Death Prophetdrakesh1t
53% · 32 games
MiranaDemon
49% · 59 games
TuskShakaLord
Game 3prediction correct23:28
Paradox Esports 37%Balrogs 63%
The model gave 63% on Balrogs — the game was taken by Balrogs in 52:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Death ProphetLissex
TerrorbladeDM
52% · 52 games
LeshracÑengoflow KELOKE
51% · 97 games
Marsdrakesh1t
47% · 74 games
SnapfireDemon
53% · 64 games
TuskShakaLord
Model check result
Model favoriteBalrogs · 74%
Series resultBalrogs 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3